Key Growth Factors

Introduction

The preparation of a Strategic Growth Plan requires that an analysis of certain key growth factors be performed. The intent of the analysis is to insure that the policies contained in the Strategic Growth Plan respond as closely as possible to current problems, trends, and issues facing the planning area. When combined with information provided by the public involvement program, a solid foundation for planning is established. The Key Growth Factors included for analysis may be discussed in six subject areas under the Salisbury 2000 Strategic Growth Plan:

• Population
• Economy
• Land Suitability/Physical Constraints
• Land Use Trends
• Water and Sewer Services
• Transportation

Collectively, these Key Growth Factors summarize past and present conditions, while providing the essential yardsticks for estimating future conditions in the planning area.

Population

The population of the planning area for the Salisbury 2000 Strategic Growth Plan may be effectively described according to three broad characteristics:

• The overall amount and rate of growth.
• The distribution of population.
• The composition of the population.

Amount and Rate of Growth

In discussing growth rates, it is useful to compare the population growth history of the City of Salisbury with that of Rowan County. As shown in the accompanying graph, the City of Salisbury's population growth since 1920 has been quite modest compared to that of Rowan County. This is especially significant considering that a large portion of Salisbury's population over that time frame has been "acquired" through annexation. Thus, while Salisbury's total population has increased by fewer than 10,000 persons over the past 60 years, Rowan County's population has added almost 60,000 during the same time frame. In fact, the County has added roughly 10,000 persons to its population during each of the decennial periods from 1920 to 1980.

It should be noted that Rowan County's rate of population growth over the next two decades is expected to remain relatively constant while the population growth rate of the City of Salisbury may accelerate slightly through the year 2000 due in large measure to an expected strategic utilities extension service and associated annexation policy by the City. Even so, the City will continue to grow at a slower rate than the County as a whole.

Source: U.S. Census; Salisbury Land Management and Community Development Department; Edward D. Stone, Jr. and Associates

Population Distribution

All indications are that the outlying areas to the southwest, west, and northwest of the City of Salisbury have been and will continue to be the fastest growing areas in Rowan County. This can be substantiated from a number of different perspectives. First, as revealed in Census data for the period 1970 - 1980, the Franklin, Locke and Litaker Townships collectively accounted for over half the County's total population growth during the 1970's. (See Rowan County 1980 Census: Population Report September 1981 available from the Salisbury Land Management and Community Development Department).

In the 1980's, this trend has continued with the majority of new subdivision activity also occurring in these three townships. Further, all three of the Planning Area's most recent major shopping centers have occurred on this side of the urban core. Substantial commercial development investments such as these are normally based upon careful, independent assessments of where population growth is occurring.

Finally, the City's own plans for water and sewer service extensions focus predominantly on the southwest and northwest sides of the City's suburban fringe.

Population Composition

For this analysis, two fundamental factors of population composition have been considered. Referring to the first graph on racial composition, the City of Salisbury and Rowan County collectively exhibit a racial breakdown that is typical of many counties in North Carolina. Thus, the City has a substantially higher percentage of Blacks than does the County. If the percent Black population of the City and the County were to be averaged, however, it would likely come quite dose to that of the State of North Carolina as a whole. It should also be noted that as the City of Salisbury expands it boundaries further into the unincorporated County, the percentage of the City's Black population will likely decline.

The second factor of population composition to be considered is that of age. Referring to the graph on Percentage of Population by Age in 1980, the City of Salisbury exhibits some age distribution characteristics that are significantly different than those of the County or the State as a whole. Most pronounced are the number of elderly (over 65) residents living in the City of Salisbury relative to the County and State. As will be seen later in the policy section of this Plan, this high percentage of elderly residents can have significant implications on the types of services that the City of Salisbury needs to deliver. Conversely, the graph reveals that the City has a smaller than average number of children aged 0 to 18. Thus, for example, the City's parks and recreation needs are likely to differ substantially from the types of recreation programming required to serve the younger population of the unincorporated County.

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Economy

Most information on the local area economy is available at the County level only. Statistics available for the County reveal an economy that is moving slowly away from a traditional, smaller area Piedmont economy to a more typical service economy of the 1980's. For example, while the proportion of total employment in manufacturing in Rowan County is high by most standards today, recent statistics show that this percentage is falling.

With regard to work force by land use category, several trends are clear. As revealed in the accompanying table, employment in the Office and Institutional category has grown over the past decade. Even more pronounced, however, is employment in the Commercial land use category. The table reveals substantial and consistent growth in commercial employment over at least the past decade.

Also revealing is the inconsistent growth of the work force in both Extensive and Intensive manufacturing land use categories. One implication that may be drawn from the table is that near term demand for industrial land may be expected to be sporadic. On the other hand, land use demand for Office and Institutional development and Commercial Development, in particular, can be expected to remain strong so long as the Rowan County economy continues to move in the direction of a service economy.

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Land Suitability l Physical Constraints on Growth

Salisbury's direction and intensity of urban growth is influenced by a number of factors related to land suitability and other physical constraints within the Planning Area. To the northeast, for example, Salisbury's urban growth has been contained by the presence of the communities of Spencer and East Spencer, as well as the Yadkin River. To the southeast, quarries and rock formations have historically limited growth in that direction. As a result, areas to the south and west of Salisbury have become increasingly more important to accommodate urban expansion as the City continues to grow.

The topography of the Salisbury planning area has had a minimal influence on urban growth patterns. The terrain of the Salisbury area is typical of the Piedmont region: gently rolling hills, moderate slopes and considerable buildable land.

From the perspective of flooding, Grants Creek once imposed a formidable barrier to urban development west of the City. However, with the annexation of areas west of Grant's Creek in the early 1960's, this barrier was breached, and urbanization has continued westward. Town Creek and Crane Creek, which are east of the urban core, have a much narrower floodprone area compared to Grants Creek. In general, Salisbury's urban growth has successfully avoided development within these flood prone areas.

An inspection of soil maps prepared by the USDA Soil Conservation Service revealed that the most favorable soils for urban development are located generally southwest and northwest of the City center. In fact, a major portion of the northwest quadrant of the old original city, as wen as virtually all of Spencer and East Spencer, have been built on soils that are less appropriate for urban development.

The other significant area of unsuitable soils straddles both sides of Interstate 85 from the East Innes Street interchange to just beyond the Julian Road exit.

It should be noted that the soils generally west of the City which are well suited for urban development, also contain areas that are agriculturally productive. A conflict between urban growth and agricultural preservation might be expected to intensify as Salisbury continues to grow. It is important that City policies encourage a growth pattern that minimizes urban sprawl and land consumption.

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Land Use Trends

Since at least the early 1960's, the predominant direction for new growth in the Salisbury area has been to the southwest, west, and northwest of the urban core. This direction of growth was reinforced during the 1970's and has been firmly established during the latter half of the 1980's. New housing developments are particularly evident along the major highway corridors leading west and southwest from Salisbury. New subdivision activity, as monitored by the City's Land Management and Community Development Department, has been especially strong along US 70 West and NC 150 West, for example.

New commercial development has also moved west with the new residential development to capture the growing retail market in this portion of the Planning Area. In fact, the last three major additions to retail floor space in the Planning Area occurred on the west side of town (Salisbury Mall, 1986; Salisbury Market Place, 1987; and West Market Square, 1987). Salisbury Mall in particular has spawned a whole spectrum of related developments in or near this major shopping facility including additional retail, office, and higher density residential development.

Jake Alexander Boulevard has, in the past several years, become an especially attractive highway corridor for new, large scale commercial development. Recent developments along the Boulevard, for example, include a new Holiday Inn/Conference Center, as well as several new automobile dealerships.

One unfortunate land use pattern which has continued throughout the history of Salisbury's growth has been commercial strip development along the City's major thoroughfares. Previous land use surveys of the Planning Area have indicated that Salisbury's original commercial growth pattern was predominantly oriented on a north/south axis from the south of town and north to Spencer and East Spencer. In the past several decades, however, the north/south pattern has been joined by an east/west pattern along Innes Street. Of most concern, however, is the apparent trend of commercial strip development along relatively new roadways within the Planning Area such as Jake Alexander Boulevard.

All of the above described land use patterns are illustrated in the accompanying Existing Land Use Survey Map for 1988. For a comparison of Salisbury's 1988 land use pattern with earlier periods, the reader is directed to the September, 1969 report entitled Land Use Analysis, Salisbury-Spencer-East Spencer, North Carolina, prepared by the Salisbury-Rowan County Planning Board. This study includes existing land use survey maps for 1959 and 1969.

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Water and Sewer Service

Water Service:

The City of Salisbury furnishes water to the incorporated area of the City plus the communities of Spencer, East Spencer and Granite Quarry. The current water system trunk line distribution map illustrates the approximate geographic area served by the City.

The water system's maximum daily capacity is 18 million gallons per day with a peak load to date of 12 million gallons per day and availability of 6 million gallons per day above peak load. The raw water source for the system is the Yadkin River.

Near term expansion plans include the extension of a City water main south along US 29. In addition, this plan includes policies which support the City's intention to service developments in the so called Primary and Secondary Growth Areas on a priority basis through the year 2000.

Sewer Service:

The City of Salisbury furnishes sewer services to the incorporated area of the City plus the communities of East Spencer, Granite Quarry, Landis and China Grove. The City of Salisbury has two sewage treatment plants with a combined capacity of 12,300,000 gallons per day. Average daily volume used is 7.5 million gallons per day for an excess capacity of 5 minion gallons per day. In 1987, City voters approved a 7.5 million dollar bond referendum to pay for a major upgrade of the City's sewage collection and treatment system.

Major sewage collection mains are illustrated on the accompanying map.

The City of Salisbury has had an established general policy of extending sewer service only to properties or developments which agree to petition to be annexed into the City. This Strategic Growth Plan also contains policies which call for the extension of sewage collection lines-on a priority basis into the Primary and Secondary Growth Areas of the Planning Area. (See Growth Strategy Map).

Thoroughfare System

Like many cities across the country today, the City of Salisbury continues to grow and expand in the face of various deficiencies in the local thoroughfare system. Salisbury's basic pattern of thoroughfares was established during the first half of this century. Roadways that were built during a period of relatively low construction and land acquisition costs must continue to serve an ever growing urban area.

At the same time, continued commercial strip development has undermined the utility of many of the urban area's most important thoroughfares. While incremental improvements to the thoroughfare system can be made, opportunities for building major new transportation facilities in this era of high construction costs and low federal funding are limited.

It is therefore critically important that new transportation improvements, such as Jake Alexander Boulevard and Brenner Avenue Extension, be carefully protected from additional strip development patterns. This policy should also apply to other sections of the so called "outer loop" as they are completed. The policies contained in this Plan also call for corrective measures where possible to dean up congested commercial corridors as redevelopment may allow.

While the scope of this plan does not include an assessment of the adequacy of the current thoroughfare system, one specific problem with the existing street system might be noted. The lack of a bypass or new cross street from east to west continues to force a bottleneck of traffic at East Innes Street near the Interstate 85 intersection. This deficiency also contributes to major truck traffic passing directly through the heart of the downtown.

In any event, it is important that the Planning Area's existing thoroughfare plan be updated in the near future, taking into consideration the financial constraints of the 1980's through the year 2000.

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